[SMM Rebar Daily Review] Seasonal demand in off-season, contradictions in the industrial sector gradually emerge

Published: Jun 13, 2025 17:17
[SMM Rebar Daily Review: Seasonal Demand in Off-Season, Contradictions in Industrial Sector Gradually Emerging] This week, rebar prices fluctuated rangebound, with the nationwide average price at 3,087 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt MoM.

This week, rebar prices fluctuated rangebound, with the current nationwide average price at 3,087 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt MoM. On the supply side, blast furnace steel mills are still in a profitable phase. In June, some steel mills adjusted their production structures, shifting towards increasing output of specialty and high-quality steel, as well as strip steel and other varieties, with expectations of further reductions in construction steel production. Steel scrap prices have remained firm, exacerbating production losses at EAF steel mills. This week, individual steel mills have halted operations, and several others have reduced their operating hours, with operating rates significantly lower than the same period last year. In the short term, there are still plans for some mills to reduce operating hours or suspend production. On the demand side, the arrival of the plum rain season in south China has made it difficult for some downstream construction projects to operate, with overall transaction volumes shrinking compared to last week. The plum rain season is expected to last until the end of June, and combined with the impact of high temperatures in north China, the traditional off-season demand slump is unlikely to change. In terms of inventory, the rate of production decline has widened this week, with in-plant and social inventories continuing to decrease. Apparent demand is in a seasonal decline phase. In the short term, the number of steel mills halting or reducing production has decreased, and the rate of production decline may narrow, with risks of in-plant inventory accumulation. Looking ahead, the domestic macro vacuum period, combined with the impact of overseas macro uncertainties, makes it difficult for news to significantly drive improvements in market sentiment. The supply and demand fundamentals can temporarily maintain a weak balance, but with the official entry into the demand off-season recently, contradictions in the industry chain will gradually become prominent. Overall, spot prices are under upward pressure. Among them, agents face relatively small inventory pressure for spot cargo, and are basically selling at a loss, slightly limiting the speed at which bottom prices decline. It is expected that the RB2510 contract will fluctuate rangebound within the 2,900-3,100 range next week.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
Before the holiday, the black chain is unlikely to see a trend-driven market [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report].
Feb 6, 2026 18:30
Before the holiday, the black chain is unlikely to see a trend-driven market [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report].
Read More
Before the holiday, the black chain is unlikely to see a trend-driven market [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report].
Before the holiday, the black chain is unlikely to see a trend-driven market [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report].
This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums, with coking coal and coke staging a mid-week rise. At the beginning of the week, financial markets experienced sharp fluctuations, dragging down sentiment in the ferrous chain and leading to a pullback in futures. Mid-week, Indonesia's cut to coke production quotas drove coking coal and coke futures to lead the gains, though the impact was more pronounced on thermal coal, while coking coal's rise was largely sentiment-driven and short-lived. In the latter part of the week, finished products continued their seasonal inventory buildup, and support from the raw material side weakened, causing the entire ferrous chain to pull back. In the spot market, with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, purchasing activity slowed down further, with end-users only making limited, as-needed purchases at low prices.
Feb 6, 2026 18:30
MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (February 6)
Feb 6, 2026 18:09
MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (February 6)
Read More
MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (February 6)
MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (February 6)
Today, the DCE iron ore futures continued to hit bottom today, with the most-traded contract I2605 closing at 760.5 yuan/mt, down 1.23% from the previous trading day. Spot prices fell by 5–10 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day.
Feb 6, 2026 18:09
[SMM Chromium Daily Review] Inquiries and Transactions Weakened, Chromium Market Showed Mediocre Performance Before the Holiday
Feb 6, 2026 17:41
[SMM Chromium Daily Review] Inquiries and Transactions Weakened, Chromium Market Showed Mediocre Performance Before the Holiday
Read More
[SMM Chromium Daily Review] Inquiries and Transactions Weakened, Chromium Market Showed Mediocre Performance Before the Holiday
[SMM Chromium Daily Review] Inquiries and Transactions Weakened, Chromium Market Showed Mediocre Performance Before the Holiday
[SMM Chrome Daily Review: Trading and Inquiries Weakened, Chrome Market Showed Mediocre Performance Before the Holiday] February 6, 2026: Today, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day...
Feb 6, 2026 17:41